Markets depend on economic statistics prepared by governments. John Williams was on Future Money Trends podcast in an interview on Oct23. Mr. Williams produces a number of US statistics (www.shadowstats.com) based on the correct data without political manipulations. He indicated he had not seen any in government stats manipulated to influence the election and felt if the GDP number came in at 2% or less on Oct28 it would represent just the normal manipulation. The number came in at 2.9%. As part of the history of political manipulation he pointed out in the 80s 160k jobs were added each month to the monthly job report because it was felt the numbers were too low. That was changed in the 90s when NAFTA was signed in an effort to hide the job loss NAFTA caused. He also indicated that because the cost of living is manipulated to keep it low, all other numbers on income, sales, business production, etc. are too high.
On 02Nov Gary Kaltbaum on his 6pm show reported he was all in cash. To the best of my memory, he has never said the cash level of his investments before. He then went on to say he should not have said that because you should make up your own mind, not just follow him.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 11Oct. Not a time to invest. The S&P500 ended down for the 9th straight day the longest losing streak since 1980.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
CashReserves
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 88.97, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 25.73, a sell price 25.88, a rank of 14, and is a SELL. (ETF – PSCE – stoppped out at 17.58)
SComputers has a price of 74.25, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 45.18, a sell price 47.20, a rank of 108, and is a SELL but due to Fidelity’s stupid rules will not let me sell it until after 09Nov without a small penalty and if I do, will also call me and warn me that if I do it again, they will prevent me from buying their funds – a great reason to buy ETFs. (ETF – XES – stopped out at 18.54)
I continue to complain to Fidelity suggesting if they knew how to manage a fund it would not be down and I would not sell. I can sell it on 11/10 and will. So I called Fidelity to verify the 11/10 date, put in my userid/password, said I had a mutual fund question, and was transfered to an extension closed for the weekend. So I called back, did not put in my userid/password, spoke to a representative, complained about my previous call, and she verified 11/10 was the correct sell date.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – sell SNatualGas now and SEnergyService on 11/10
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested and then after 11/10 it will be 40%
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
9.34 01-18 FSELX 88.97 SSemiconductors
6.46 02-04 FJSCX 15.61 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
5.40 03-20 FLATX 21.27 LatinAmerica
4.94 04-16 FSDCX 31.14 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
4.70 05-03 FSRBX 25.93 SBanking
4.41 06-16 FSCSX 132.43 SSoftware&ITServices
4.28 07-16 FSPTX 129.74 STechnology
4.27 08-02 FEMEX 8.07 EmergingEMEA
4.25 09-05 FJPNX 12.50 Japan
4.05 10-01 FSAGX 23.28 SGold
3.99 11-21 FTEMX 11.14 TotalEmergingMarkets
3.88 12-03 FFGCX 10.74 GlobalCommodity Stock
3.49 13-14 FDCPX 74.25 SComputers
3.14 14-06 FSNGX 25.73 SNaturalGas
3.11 15-01 FSAIX 65.45 SAirTransportation
2.94 16-01 FISMX 24.09 InternationalSmallCap
2.92 17-01 FSRFX 80.18 STransportation
2.63 18-02 FSPCX 70.59 SInsurance
2.55 19-02 FSDAX 122.22 SDefense&Aerospace
2.32 20-01 FPBFX 28.45 PacificBasin
Last week:
11.67 01-19 FLATX 22.47 LatinAmerica
11.61 02-17 FSELX 90.37 SSemiconductors
7.66 03-15 FSCSX 136.24 SSoftware&ITServices
7.51 04-15 FSPTX 133.46 STechnology
7.30 05-02 FSRBX 26.51 SBanking Yes
6.72 06-05 FSNGX 26.58 SNaturalGas
6.64 07-13 FDCPX 76.37 SComputers
6.34 08-03 FJSCX 15.54 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.27 09-20 FTEMX 11.36 TotalEmergingMarkets
5.07 10-04 FJPNX 12.57 Japan Yes
5.00 11-05 FSENX 43.03 SEnergy
4.87 12-15 FSDCX 31.04 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
4.28 13-02 FFGCX 10.76 GlobalCommodity Stock
4.16 14-01 FLCSX 27.96 LargeCapStock
4.11 15-01 FEMEX 8.04 EmergingEMEA
4.10 16-05 FNARX 28.57 SNaturalResources
3.96 17-01 FSDAX 123.73 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
3.92 18-01 FSPCX 71.38 SInsurance
3.88 19-01 FWRLX 8.88 SWireless
3.83 20-01 FGRTX 16.59 MegaCapStock Yes
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Nov16) from SEnergyService(FSESX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(07Nov16) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%