So I spent a couple of days in Gainesville attending my daughter’s graduation from the University of Florida with a Doctor of Education degree. While there I stayed in a Home2 Suites by Hilton. It is a great place to stay and I recommend Home2 Suites by Hilton as a hotel wherever you can find them.
One interesting observation is that the DJIA – 30 larger cap stocks- up 2.6% over the last 2 weeks and the S&P500 – 500 large cap stocks – is up .02%. The biggest stocks are still going up and pulling the averages up while the smaller ones are not. Not the sign of a good market.
All in all the sum of the deviations (my measurement of the market) has not increased two weeks in a row – not a buy week.
I had a discussion with an acquaintance comparing Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) and thought I would review it this week. Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Mutual Fund (FNCMX) has the same goal and investments as PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ). Over the last year FBCNX up 22.76% and QQQ up 24.28%. The downside of an ETF is that it costs $5 to buy and $5 to sell. If you enter a stoploss order, like I do to protect me from a big drop (I generally use a 7% stoploss price below the highest previous close, sometimes I use the 50 day moving average (stockcharts.com is a good source)), it may be sold on a day the market drops and then recovers. The down side of a mutual fund is that it can only be purchased and sold at the end of the day. A stoploss order cannot be used thus you cannot protect your investments from a big daily drop. Mutual funds only report investments quarterly, not daily like an ETF. At Fidelity if you buy and sell the fund twice within 90 days Fidelity will restrict your future investments – other Fidelity funds charge up to 1.5% if sold within 90 days. Fidelity management fees are slightly higher than PowerShares – thus part of the difference in annual return. If you buy a mutual fund and it has sold shares for a gain or received dividends, even before you buy it, you will pay tax on a the gain and dividends even if you are losing money on your purchase. My stoploss on my QQQ investment is 134.73.
One interesting observation is that the DJIA – 30 larger cap stocks- up 2.6% over the last 2 weeks and the S&P500 – 500 large cap stocks – is up .02%. The biggest stocks are still going up and pulling the averages up while the smaller ones are not. Not the sign of a good market.
All in all the sum of the deviations (my measurement of the market) has not increased two weeks in a row – not a buy week.
My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 93.86, 50 day MA of 93.06, a 200 day MA of 89.15, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. The ratio between SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) and RSP still indicates the larger capitalization stocks are doing better than te average. Generally not a positive indicator.
I am still following Fidelity funds because many 401ks, like HRBlock’s, are stuck in the 20th century and only allow mutual fund investments. Even the State of Florida, allows ETFs in it’s personally managed state retirement plan.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 170.68, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 47.90 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 88.38, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 31, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 106.71, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 86.31)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.65, a sell price 10.12, and a rank of 01. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 17.96)
ETF – IBUY – stoploss not allowed – I plan to hold IBUY longer even thought SLeasure was sold, IBUY’s price is 6.2% above a sell price of 35.03.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.39 01-04 FPEMX 10.65 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
15.32 02-13 FHKCX 31.91 ChinaReqion
13.49 03-28 FSPTX 170.68 STechnology
13.22 04-11 FSEAX 40.51 EmergingAsia
11.92 05-15 FDSVX 31.94 Growth Discovery
11.87 06-04 FISMX 28.51 InternationalSmallCap
11.38 07-06 FOCPX 106.71 OTCPortfolio
11.36 08-02 FSDAX 151.69 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-04 FPBFX 32.71 PacificBasin
10.71 10-02 FIGRX 45.02 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.67 11-02 FIREX 11.25 InternationalRealEstate Yes
10.57 12-03 FTIEX 9.00 TotalInternationalEquity
10.44 13-18 FEMKX 29.22 EmergingMarkets
10.44 14-12 FSCOX 17.98 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
10.15 15-07 FBIOX 215.73 SBiotechnology
10.02 16-04 FBGRX 83.91 BlueChipGrowth
9.90 17-03 FSVLX 14.52 SConsumerFinance
9.59 18-01 FWRLX 10.00 SWireless Yes
9.58 19-01 FNORX 53.39 Nordic
9.50 20-01 FIVFX 20.01 InternationalCapApp
Last week:
15.89 01-03 FPEMX 10.61 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
15.79 02-12 FHKCX 31.78 ChinaReqion Yes
14.23 03-27 FSPTX 170.57 STechnology
14.01 04-10 FSEAX 40.51 EmergingAsia
12.83 05-06 FBIOX 219.80 SBiotechnology
12.18 06-03 FISMX 28.41 InternationalSmallCap
11.94 07-25 FOCPX 106.61 OTCPortfolio
11.78 08-14 FDSVX 31.70 Growth Discovery
11.58 09-03 FPBFX 32.76 PacificBasin
11.17 10-17 FEMKX 29.25 EmergingMarkets
11.05 11-11 FSCOX 17.98 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
10.94 12-02 FTIEX 8.98 TotalInternationalEquity
10.86 13-01 FARNX 14.57 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
10.57 14-01 FIGRX 44.71 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.50 15-03 FBGRX 83.83 BlueChipGrowth
10.41 16-01 FIREX 11.16 InternationalRealEstate Yes
10.12 17-03 FSCSX 155.93 SSoftware&ITServices
10.06 18-01 FSDAX 149.03 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
9.87 19-02 FSVLX 14.44 SConsumerFinance
9.85 20-02 FCNTX 118.79 Contrafund
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%