A week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 669, 732, and now 738 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 17, 14, and now 30.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – it seems none of my top 20 fund deviations have been up two weeks in a row. In fact only 7 of my top 20 fund deviations are up for one week. I do not remember a time when the sum of the deviations has been up 2 weeks in a row and none of the top 20 is up. The top funds are just not moving up as fast as they have in the past
Fidelity seems to have its web site properly undated today. While I doubt it maybe my weekly calls got to someone who cares about the data they publish.
Macrovoices podcast on 02May19 featured Juliette Declercq. She discusses the Fed’s failures and suggests a interest rate cut in September. She also points out the FED change in January and China rate cuts helped stocks continue up. She suggests the FED will continue to cut rates, kill savings return, and pushing assets higher.
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.43, a sell price 34.61, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 69.34, a sell price 66.17, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.12, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 44, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.43, a sell price 34.31, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.82, a sell price 10.28, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
15.51 01-05 FSELX 10.82 SSemiconductors
14.25 02-11 FSPTX 17.27 STechnology
12.56 03-17 FBSOX 69.34 SITServices
12.47 04-09 FOCPX 12.47 OTCPortfolio
12.00 05-14 FHKCX 36.43 ChinaRegion
11.51 06-06 FSVLX 16.93 SConsumerFinance
11.35 07-10 FSCSX 18.29 SSoftware&ITServices
11.07 08-04 FSCPX 47.70 SConsumerDiscretionary
11.00 09-10 FSEAX 44.61 EmergingAsia
10.96 10-09 FBMPX 63.21 SCommunicationServices
10.74 11-04 FSHOX 57.58 SConstructionandHousing
10.64 12-04 FSRPX 16.21 SRetailing
10.47 13-01 FDCPX 76.29 SComputers
10.41 14-01 FCYIX 35.68 SIndustrials
10.04 15-08 FTQGX 25.19 FocusedStock
9.96 16-02 FNCMX 106.34 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.78 17-02 FBGRX 103.14 BlueChipGrowth
9.77 18-02 FSPGX 15.80 LargeCapGrowthIndex
9.67 19-03 FDLSX 15.67 SLeisure
9.50 20-02 FDSVX 37.70 Growth Discovery
Last Week
14.74 01-04 FSELX 10.66 SSemiconductors
14.71 02-10 FSPTX 17.21 STechnology Yes
13.81 03-16 FBSOX 69.65 SITServices
13.00 04-08 FBMPX 64.00 SCommunicationServices
12.85 05-08 FOCPX 12.43 OTCPortfolio
12.69 06-09 FSCSX 18.40 SSoftware&ITServices
12.12 07-05 FSVLX 16.92 SConsumerFinance
11.74 08-03 FSRPX 16.28 SRetailing Yes
11.66 09-03 FSCPX 47.67 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.71 10-07 FTQGX 25.21 FocusedStock
10.64 11-13 FHKCX 35.76 ChinaRegion
10.34 12-01 FSPGX 15.80 LargeCapGrowthIndex
10.19 13-01 FBGRX 102.99 BlueChipGrowth
10.11 14-01 FDSVX 37.72 Growth Discovery
10.10 15-01 FNCMX 105.92 NasdaqCompositeIndex
10.08 16-03 FSHOX 56.91 SConstructionandHousing
9.88 17-02 FDLSX 15.62 SLeisure
9.80 18-09 FSEAX 43.87 EmergingAsia
9.80 19-01 FTRNX 104.23 Trend
9.66 20-01 FCNTX 13.12 Contrafund
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
Mar19 1m-1% 3m-4% 6m-14% 12m-9% 24m+9% 36m+39% 60m+23% 120m+12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Mar19 1m-0% 3m+2% 6m-9% 12m-4% 24m+3% 36m+21% 60m+17% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m-5% 12m+10%
QQQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+16% 6m-3% 12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%