This last week was an ok week. Not a bad, week not a good week.
Zacks has a Market Edge podcast. On the 31 January, they discussed ETFs such as PRNT (3d printing), SNSR (the internet of things), IFLY (drones), GVIP (hedge funds largest holdings), ITEQ (Israeli tech stocks), WSKY (whiskey and spirits), AIRR (American Industrial Resonance ), etc.
An interesting article from Mark Hulbert: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-threat-to-your-money-now-ignoring-the-scent-of-a-bear-market-2017-01-20.
Wall Street Week on Friday had two interesting guests. Robert Doll from Nuveen and Dan Shaffer from Shaffer. Doll thinks interest rates will go higher (buy financials), the market will be flat at a 5% gain at most for the year and Shaffer thinks interest rates will go lower (sell financials), investors should be ready to sell. Doll thinks financials, healthcare, and technology are good investments. Shaffer we should buy government bonds and food is becoming a scarce commodity and thus buy food companies and food ETFs.
“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 27Jan, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 03Feb, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.96, 50 day MA of 87.50, a 200 day MA of 82.99, and a 7% stop loss is 83.00. This is not an investment to buy and hold. The RSP (and the SPY) have done very little since 09Dec. There was a slight peak about 8 days ago but it looks like bull market is getting tired.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. I am fully invested so will buy nothing, but am watching the sell prices closely.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.88, a sell price 31.30, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.90)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 99.03, a sell price 94.69, a rank of 06, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 70.54)
STransportation has a price of 91.54, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 15, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.59, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 16, and is a hold. (ETF – XES – stoploss executed)
SBiotechnology has a price of 189.20, a sell price 179.74, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 61.36)
My stoploss on XES was executed at 22.06 on Monday when the price fell to 21.88. The price has since recovered and is up 5% since I sold but still down from my purchase price. Perhaps the 7% stop loss was too tight, but it looks to me that XES is no longer a buy anyway (SNaturalGas is also not be a buy this week).
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.90 01-16 FSRBX 32.88 SBanking
14.99 02-06 FBIOX 189.20 SBiotechnology
13.96 03-13 FARNX 13.75 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
13.53 04-10 FSESX 57.26 SEnergyService
13.31 05-01 FSAGX 22.25 SGold
12.60 06-31 FSELX 99.03 SSemiconductors
12.28 07-03 FSCHX 158.55 SChemicals
11.43 08-13 FIDSX 100.56 SFinancialServices
11.10 09-13 FSLBX 69.62 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
10.85 10-13 FSHCX 86.51 SHealthCareServices
10.83 11-03 FDCPX 78.99 SComputers Yes
10.22 12-05 FFGCX 11.90 GlobalCommodity Stock
10.07 13-02 FSPTX 141.78 STechnology Yes
9.98 14-12 FCPEX 14.34 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
9.57 15-14 FSRFX 91.54 STransportation
9.39 16-12 FSNGX 29.59 SNaturalGas
9.23 17-01 FSVLX 13.68 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.21 18-04 FEMEX 8.70 EmergingEMEA
8.95 19-02 FSDPX 80.70 SMaterials
8.62 20-08 FCYIX 33.10 SIndustrials
Last week:
18.20 01-15 FSRBX 32.95 SBanking
15.16 02-09 FSESX 57.67 SEnergyService
14.09 03-30 FSELX 99.67 SSemiconductors
13.45 04-13 FSRFX 94.30 STransportation
12.96 05-12 FARNX 13.53 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.73 06-02 FSCHX 158.15 SChemicals
11.75 07-05 FBIOX 182.42 SBiotechnology
11.70 08-12 FIDSX 100.19 SFinancialServices
11.56 09-04 FFGCX 11.98 GlobalCommodity Stock
10.80 10-13 FSAIX 75.66 SAirTransportation
10.77 11-12 FSLBX 69.01 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.75 12-11 FSNGX 29.81 SNaturalGas
10.09 13-12 FSHCX 85.43 SHealthCareServices
9.94 14-11 FCPEX 14.26 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.93 15-01 FSDPX 81.04 SMaterials
9.87 16-03 FEMEX 8.71 EmergingEMEA
9.74 17-07 FCYIX 33.29 SIndustrials
9.68 18-01 FSPTX 140.53 STechnology
9.52 19-02 FDCPX 77.61 SComputers
9.00 20-01 FSCSX 138.57 SSoftware&ITServices
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m+7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m+52% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%