Not a good week, not a time to buy. The sum of all the deviations has been 297, 728, and now 499 – still not up two weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 61, and now 01.
I continue to be invested in only 3 Fidelity funds (2 after Monday). All my ETFs were stopped out early in February. Until I get a buy week, I intend to remain in cash.
Consuelo Mack’s Wealthtrack show on 16 Feb featured Robert Kessler. Kessler points out that treasury bonds are yielding more than the S&P500. His one investment for the future is to buy and hold long term treasury strips (also known as a zero coupon treasury bond). He points out that over the last ~10 years the Fed has caused the market to go up by been printing money by buying securities (quantitative easing) and lowering interest rates. Now they are selling securities (quantitative tightening) and raising interest rates. A secure, inexpensive way to buy US treasury bonds is at Treasurydirect.gov. Investments start at $100 and mature in several days to 30 years depending on your purchase. No broker, no sales charge.
I received a couple of emails over the last few weeks.
I think my deviations numbers have been correct, but may have entered some based on some wrong day quotes from Fidelity. This week the quotes were correct but the distributions not listed – none of the funds I follow.
Macrovoices.com is the web site where they presented an analysis of the current down trend overlayed with the charts of several previous corrections – sort of a W looking trend. Hopefully the last up leg will start soon.
IRA#1
Cash
IRA#2
SRetailing has a price of 142.28, a sell price 141.45, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – RTH – stopped out)
SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement has a price of 83.60, a sell price 84.05, a rank of 18, and is a SELL. (ETF – CHIX – stopped out)
EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica has a price of 10.97, a sell price 10.74, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – EMQQ – stopped out)
My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.54 01-07 FSDAX 181.22 SDefense&Aerospace
12.53 02-16 FSRPX 142.28 SRetailing
11.52 03-11 FEMEX 10.97 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
11.05 04-02 FSELX 117.83 SSemiconductors Yes
11.05 05-05 FSPTX 193.40 STechnology
11.03 06-06 FSCSX 178.38 SSoftware&ITServices
10.90 07-04 FSDCX 39.11 SCommunicationsEquipment
10.72 08-08 FBSOX 58.44 SITServices
9.29 09-03 FCPGX 26.39 SmallCapGrowth
9.25 10-03 FOCPX 116.81 OTCPortfolio
9.24 11-01 FLGEX 19.85 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
8.73 12-06 FCNTX 127.99 Contrafund
8.69 13-06 FBGRX 92.66 BlueChipGrowth
8.48 14-12 FHKCX 37.07 ChinaReqion
8.30 15-09 FTQGX 23.94 FocusedStock
7.95 16-01 FNCMX 95.30 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.79 17-08 FSCPX 43.30 SConsumerDiscretionary
7.77 18-01 FSLBX 83.60 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
7.65 19-02 FLATX 27.30 LatinAmerica
7.57 20-01 FEDDX 15.93 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
Last week
15.58 01-10 FEMEX 11.30 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica Yes
15.24 02-06 FSDAX 184.35 SDefense&Aerospace
15.22 03-15 FSRPX 144.72 SRetailing Yes
13.00 04-05 FSCSX 180.50 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
12.85 05-04 FSPTX 195.39 STechnology Yes
12.83 06-07 FBSOX 59.22 SITServices Yes
12.55 07-11 FHKCX 38.29 ChinaReqion Yes
11.23 08-03 FSDCX 39.00 SCommunicationsEquipment
11.18 09-07 FSCPX 44.48 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.95 10-05 FBGRX 94.15 BlueChipGrowth Yes
10.78 11-05 FCNTX 129.80 Contrafund Yes
10.68 12-08 FTQGX 24.36 FocusedStock Yes
10.63 13-09 FPEMX 12.04 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC Yes
10.49 14-02 FOCPX 117.56 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.35 15-01 FSELX 116.40 SSemiconductors Yes
10.02 16-01 FLATX 27.79 LatinAmerica Yes
9.81 17-01 FSUIX 14.11 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC Yes
9.79 18-02 FEMKX 34.11 EmergingMarkets
9.79 19-02 FCPGX 26.38 SmallCapGrowth Yes
9.69 20-03 FTRNX 103.88 Trend
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
Jan17 1m+6% 3m+5% 6m+18% 12m+24% 24m+63% 36m+27% 60m+89% 120m+18%
Dec17 1m-1% 3m+7% 6m+18% 12m+18% 24m+46% 36m+28% 60m+92% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
20% – EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+3% 3m+4% 6m+9% 12m+15% 24m+33% 36m+26% 60m+36% 120m+44%
Dec17 1m-0% 3m+4% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+23% 36m+22% 60m+35% 120m+41%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%