I am excessively late in producing this report. I had to go up to Orlando to help Mickey run the World. It is the rainy season in Orlando and the heavy rains started both Friday and Saturday nights about 7PM.
Driving home Sunday I listened to the 06/01 MacroVoices podcast. Their feeling is that the market will go much higher, which makes no logical sense since the market is very over valued. However, this is what a late stage bull market looks like – a lot of hysteria. This is the beginning of a blow off top. One of the other items I learned was that the oil the US produces cannot be refined in the US because it is extremely light crude oil and none of US refineries can refine it. It has to be mixed with heavy crude oil from somewhere before it can be refined. The guest points out that we are in an oil glut for a couple of years and since we are discovering less and less new oil each year, when the glut ends, the price of oil will significantly increase and negatively impact all world economies.
If you have not registered (free) with MacroVoices.com you should. Their weekly report is fantastic and you do not even have to listen to their podcast.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 93.01, 50 day MA of 91.06, a 200 day MA of 87.05, and a 7% stop loss is 86.50. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold. The general rule of thumb is: consider selling when an investment falls below its 50 week average and make sure you own nothing selling below both its 50 and 200 day moving average.
InestorsBusinessDaily TheBigPicture’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” – Time to invest. Except I am almost fully invested with little cash left to buy anything.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 166.72, a sell price 158.38, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 43.11 )
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 107.75, a sell price 102.36, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 80.74)
SComputers has a price of 88.47, a sell price 84.05, a rank of of 09, and is a hold (ETF – PSI – current stoploss 42.61)
SLeasure has a price of 164.87, a sell price 156.63, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IBUY – stoploss not allowed)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 103.97, a sell price 98.77, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 83.63)
00% Cash in IRA#01 and IRA#2.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
18.39 01-19 FSPTX 166.72 STechnology Yes
16.03 02-10 FDLSX 164.87 SLeisure Yes
15.01 03-06 FNORX 53.19 Nordic Yes
14.85 04-17 FOCPX 103.97 OTCPortfolio Yes
14.68 05-05 FSELX 107.75 SSemiconductors Yes
13.32 06-07 FSCSX 153.56 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
13.25 07-06 FIEUX 40.50 Europe Yes
13.17 08-03 FSCOX 17.71 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
12.74 09-20 FDCPX 88.47 SComputers Yes
12.72 10-10 FBGRX 82.13 BlueChipGrowth Yes
12.58 11-06 FDSVX 31.07 Growth Discovery Yes
12.37 12-06 FOSFX 47.68 Overseas Yes
12.26 13-05 FIGFX 12.91 InternationalGrowth Yes
12.11 14-12 FSEAX 38.35 EmergingAsia Yes
11.94 15-09 FEMKX 27.69 EmergingMarkets Yes
11.82 16-04 FHKCX 29.55 ChinaReqion
11.79 17-05 FWRLX 9.92 SWireless Yes
11.77 18-05 FIGRX 43.66 InternationalDiscovery Yes
11.69 19-02 FCNTX 116.24 Contrafund Yes
11.46 20-03 FIVFX 19.59 InternationalCapApp Yes
Last week:
17.64 01-18 FSPTX 164.06 STechnology
13.73 02-16 FOCPX 102.15 OTCPortfolio
13.69 03-04 FSELX 106.00 SSemiconductors Yes
13.52 04-09 FDLSX 159.95 SLeisure
12.85 05-05 FNORX 51.78 Nordic
12.75 06-06 FSCSX 151.71 SSoftware&ITServices
12.73 07-19 FDCPX 87.87 SComputers
12.68 08-03 FHKCX 29.59 ChinaReqion Yes
11.99 09-05 FIEUX 39.77 Europe Yes
11.96 10-09 FBGRX 81.03 BlueChipGrowth
11.90 11-05 FDSVX 30.68 Growth Discovery
11.86 12-11 FSEAX 38.02 EmergingAsia
11.64 13-05 FOSFX 47.06 Overseas Yes
11.59 14-08 FEMKX 27.43 EmergingMarkets
11.51 15-02 FSCOX 17.33 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
11.07 16-04 FIGFX 12.69 InternationalGrowth Yes
11.07 17-01 FCNTX 114.88 Contrafund
11.01 18-04 FWRLX 9.79 SWireless
10.82 19-04 FIGRX 43.02 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.25 20-02 FIVFX 19.26 InternationalCapApp Yes
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Mar17 1m-4% 3m-3% 6m-4% 12m+27% 24m-11% 36m+13% 60m+41% 120m+3%
Apr17 1m+0% 3m-3% 6m+4% 12m+3% 24m-10% 36m+13% 60m+51% 120m+4%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SLeasure(FDLSX)(08May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Mar17 1m-1% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+13% 60m+12% 120m+29%
Apr17 1m-1% 3m+3% 6m+9% 12m+13% 24m+7% 36m+13% 60m+15% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%