This was definitely an improvement over the last couple of weeks. The sum of all deviations, which I use to evaluate market trend, is up again and is the highest it has been since 04Aug. Among the 100 Fidelity funds I follow, last week there were 22 funds which I rated as buy. This week there are 75 funds rated as buy – deviations increased the last 2 weeks.
I had previously mention that Jim Rohrback of Investment-Models.com was offering a free 2 month subscription to his timing letter. He had indicated his Nasdaq model said sell on 10Aug, and the NYSE model said sell on 11Aug. Earlier this week I asked him to sign me up for that free offer. On Wed he sent a mid week report indicating he was still on a sell basis. After Thursday’s close, he sent a special report saying buy.
My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 93.60, 50 day MA of 93.15, a 200 day MA of 90.28, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. Both RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) and SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) are now above their 50 Day moving average. SPY is doing better than RSP, which indicate the market leaders (Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon) are doing better than the average stock
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 175.75, a sell price 166.96, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 51.92)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 89.28, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 26, and is a hold for now. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 108.21, a sell price 102.80, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 87.02)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.88, a sell price 10.34, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.67)
SBiotechnology – has a price of 228.26, a sell price TBD, a rank of 3, and is a buy. (ETF – SBIO – stoploss TBD)
Biotechnology is a super volatile sector with stocks like Gilead buying Kite Pharma for $11.9b this week at a premium of 29% over the previous week closing price. While ChinaRegion is my number one fund, it does not have an improving deviation two weeks in a row – an indication its price increase is slowing.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SBiotechnology
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.62 01-17 FHKCX 32.67 ChinaReqion
14.49 02-09 FPEMX 10.88 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
14.46 03-02 FBIOX 228.26 SBiotechnology Yes
13.87 04-32 FSPTX 175.75 STechnology Yes
12.37 05-15 FSEAX 41.22 EmergingAsia
11.82 06-04 FLATX 24.95 LatinAmerica
11.24 07-22 FEMKX 30.08 EmergingMarkets
11.11 08-06 FSDAX 154.58 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-10 FOCPX 108.21 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.74 10-19 FDSVX 31.49 Growth Discovery Yes
10.33 11-08 FISMX 28.72 InternationalSmallCap
10.27 12-08 FPBFX 33.25 PacificBasin
9.95 13-02 FFGCX 11.97 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
9.74 14-03 FEDDX 14.75 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
9.38 15-01 FSCSX 158.15 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.28 16-01 FBGRX 84.74 BlueChipGrowth Yes
9.26 17-07 FTIEX 9.06 TotalInternationalEquity
9.11 18-03 FIVFX 20.29 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.99 19-06 FIREX 11.28 InternationalRealEstate Yes
8.90 20-06 FIGRX 45.10 InternationalDiscovery
Last week:
15.19 01-16 FHKCX 32.58 ChinaReqion Yes
15.16 02-08 FPEMX 10.86 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
13.06 03-03 FLATX 25.07 LatinAmerica Yes
12.66 04-14 FSEAX 41.06 EmergingAsia Yes
12.32 05-31 FSPTX 172.09 STechnology Yes
11.53 06-21 FEMKX 29.98 EmergingMarkets Yes
10.54 07-07 FPBFX 33.15 PacificBasin Yes
10.47 08-07 FISMX 28.60 InternationalSmallCap
9.93 09-02 FEDDX 14.70 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
9.45 10-05 FSDAX 151.39 SDefense&Aerospace
9.39 11-18 FDSVX 30.93 Growth Discovery
9.31 12-06 FTIEX 9.02 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
9.24 13-03 FSUTX 85.28 SUtilities Yes
9.24 14-01 FFGCX 11.83 GlobalCommodityStock
9.17 15-05 FIGRX 45.00 InternationalDiscovery Yes
8.96 16-09 FOCPX 105.83 OTCPortfolio
8.82 17-02 FIVFX 20.14 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.66 18-15 FSCOX 17.93 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
8.44 19-05 FIREX 11.17 InternationalRealEstate
8.22 20-01 FBIOX 214.17 SBiotechnology
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jul17 1m+5% 3m+8% 6m+5% 12m+6% 24m+7% 36m+17% 60m+81% 120m-18%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(05Sep17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jul17 1m+1% 3m+2% 6m+5% 12m+5% 24m+7% 36m+16% 60m+25% 120m+22%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%